England’s care home workforce declined by up to 4%, or 19,000, due to mandatory Covid vaccination in 2021, research has estimated.

The University of Nottingham analysis, published in the journal Management Science, covered the period of the legislation, which was implemented between 11 November 2021 and March 2022.

Professor Sourafel Girma, Professor of Industrial Economics in the School of Economics at the University of Nottingham, said: “The issue of Covid vaccination is particularly sensitive in the case of elderly care homes given the high vulnerability of residents to Covid-19.  At the same time, if a mandate results in care workers being sacked or choosing to leave their job, it may contribute to staffing difficulties.”

The research found that about 16% of care workers in England were unvaccinated before the policy announcement, dropping to just 4% per cent after the final implementation in November 2021.

By November 2021 there were between 28,000 and 41,000 fewer unvaccinated staff working in care homes in England than had the mandate not been in place. However, the experts observe that much of this effect came at the expense of staffing.

The academics say that, given that some unvaccinated staff will have been replaced by vaccinated staff, the total number of care workers who left their jobs because of the mandate was almost certainly much larger than the overall 19,000 drop in the workforce. They also noted a big increase in reliance on agency workers (rather than directly employed) over the same period.

Further analysis revealed the impact persisted even after the lifting of the mandate with the workforce down by 2% in June 2022 in comparison with the before announcement of the legislation in June 2021.

While formal mandates and employer-based restrictions are still common in a number of countries,  including the US, Canada and Australia, the research found no evidence that the move had saved lives in the UK.