New research by the University of Glasgow in partnership the Advanced Care Research Centre, University of Edinburgh, has provided further insight on Covid mortality rates in care homes.

The study published in Age and Ageing (the official journal of the British Geriatrics Society), builds on earlier work on Covid-19 includes analysis on a total of 1,313 outbreaks involving residents from March 2020 to October 2021.

It shows the Covid-19 mortality rate per 1,000 beds fell from 45.8 in March to August 2020 (wave 1) to 29.3 in September 2020 to May 2021 (wave 2). After roll-out of vaccination, the Covid-19 mortality rate fell significantly to 3.5 per 1,000 beds in June to October 2021.

The analysis shows the consistently elevated risks associated with living in larger care homes, although the risk reduced as the pandemic progresses and epidemiology of the virus evolves. Similarly, the community prevalence of Covid-19 infections in the local authority area where the care home was located was associated with increased risk of outbreak.

Lead author Dr Jenni Burton said: “Covid-19 had a devastating impact on people living in care homes. We need to better understand exactly what happened so we can avoid the mistakes made in the future.

“Future pandemic planning has to take better account of the care sector and involve residents, families and carers. A critical gap remains that data about people living in care homes is limited, making them relatively invisible to policy. As well as clinical interventions like infection control, we need to better understand how building design and ventilation influences infection risk, and how to balance infection risk against creating a homely environment for residents to live in.”

Professor Bruce Guthrie said: “During and after wave 1, there many Covid-19 mitigation measures put in place including closing homes to visitors, regular staff and resident testing, and better isolation and management if residents were infected. However, continuing high mortality in residents in wave 2 emphasises that mitigation before vaccination was limited because of the high transmissibility of the virus and the high mortality of Covid-19 in older and frailer people.”