Social care needs an investment of £8.3 billion to keep pace with demand over the next decade, according to a new report.

The Health Foundation report said funding would need to rise by an average of 3.4% a year to keep up with demand between 2021/22 and 2032/33.

Anita Charlesworth, director of Research and REAL Centre, at the Health Foundation, said: “Our estimates show significant additional funding from government is needed just to maintain the current, and frankly inadequate, levels of care. 

“Our political system is struggling to cope with the scale of the challenge facing social care and the range of issues that need to be fixed simultaneously. What is clear is that there is a big price tag just to stop quality and access to care deteriorating. Further improvements to this crucial pillar of the welfare state will require significant additional investment.

“Central to this is improving conditions for staff, ensuring providers are fully funded and relieving pressure on unpaid carers by expanding access. The fundamental problems facing England’s social care system are the legacy of decades of political failure; with repeated short-term injections of cash to limit the immediate crisis but no long-term planning for the future.”

The analysis suggests the following uplifts to social care funding would be required in order to:

• Meet future demand: £0.6 billion by 2024/25 and £8.3 billion by 2032/33 (3.4% a year real-terms increase)
• Meet future demand and make some improvements to access to care: £3.1 billion by 2024/25 and £11.6 billion by 2032/33 (4.3% a year real-terms increase)
• Meet future demand and cover the full cost of care: £5.4 billion by 2024/25 and £14.6 billion by 2032/33 (5.1% a year real terms increase)
• Meet future demand and improve access to care and cover the full cost of care: £8.4 billion by 2024/25 and £18.4 billion by 2032/33 (6% a year real-terms increase).

Beverley Tarka, president of Association of Directors of Adult Social Services, said: “Social care directors face a widening gap between budgets and the growing numbers of people needing increasingly complex care and support, as well as inflation and cost-of-living pushing up costs. As this report shows, continuing with the status quo means a continued slide into a progressively unsustainable financial situation for adult social care.

“This report, along with many others, sends a clear message to all political parties that they need to commit to a long term, fully-funded plan for social care. Good quality, reliable social care offers a huge opportunity to keep people well at home instead of ending up in hospital unnecessarily, it provides jobs and supports our economy, and helps us all to live well, care and work. We now need to the political will to make the long-term transformation of social care a reality.”

Miriam Deakin, director of policy and strategy, NHS Providers, said: “Social care can’t be the poor relation of the NHS.

“Without reform to place the social care sector on a sustainable footing knock-on problems for the whole health and care system will continue to pile up. 

“NHS services need to work hand in hand with properly funded, staffed and supported social care to help people to remain independent with the right support at home, reduce avoidable admissions and help get people home or to a community setting when they are well enough to leave hospital.

“Just like the NHS, social care requires long-term solutions to ensure that it has enough staff and resources to meet growing demand for an ageing population with more complex needs. 

“We must better value and support the vital role that social care staff and carers play.”

Caroline Abrahams, charity director at Age UK and co-chair of the Care and Support Alliance (CSA) said: “This analysis shows the alarming extent to which funding is already failing to keep pace with rising demand for social care and should be a wake-up call for policymakers.

“At least 2.6 million people currently go without the care they need. With an ageing population and a growing number of disabled people of working age needing care, demand for social care will only increase. Policymakers must face up to this reality urgently and ensure that the social care system receives the investment required so that older people, disabled people, and their carers receive the care and support they need.”

A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: “We are fully committed to our 10-year vision to reform adult social care. Our Next Steps to put People at the Heart of Care plan sets out how we are spending £700 million over two years, including £250 million for the workforce to develop their skills and careers, on top of our £7.5 billion investment to help reduce adult social care waiting times and increase capacity.

“This historic funding boost will put the adult social care system on a stronger financial footing and help local authorities address waiting lists, low fee rates, and workforce pressures in the sector.”